Will Lagos Be Submerged? The Looming Threat of Rising Waters

Imagine a city where the streets are bustling, the skyline sparkles with high-rises, and commerce thrives—but all of this is under threat. Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city and the economic heartbeat of West Africa, is facing a dangerous foe: rising sea levels. According to the state’s deputy governor, Lagos could soon be submerged by swelling waters, a disaster waiting to happen if preventive actions are not taken. Could this vibrant megacity, home to over 20 million people, become uninhabitable? As we explore the gravity of this threat, we must understand how Lagos’ future hangs in the balance of environmental changes.

Rising sea levels are not a problem unique to Lagos. Cities worldwide, from Miami to Bangkok, are grappling with similar threats. However, Lagos’ position makes it particularly vulnerable. The city lies barely above sea level, cradled by the Atlantic Ocean and flanked by lagoons. Its geography, coupled with its rapid, largely unplanned urbanization, creates a perfect storm for disaster.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that the earth’s temperature will continue to rise, accelerating the melting of ice caps and glaciers. As water bodies expand and ocean levels rise, coastal cities like Lagos face severe flooding. The city’s deputy governor has sounded the alarm, emphasizing that Lagos could become submerged in the coming years if immediate action is not taken. Yet, how prepared is Lagos to combat this climate-induced threat?

Lagos’ geography is both a blessing and a curse. Nestled along Nigeria’s coastline, the city benefits from trade, tourism, and maritime activities. Yet, this advantageous location is also its Achilles’ heel. Much of Lagos is built on low-lying land, and with a large portion of the city sitting at sea level, there is very little room for error when it comes to rising waters.

One key area at risk is Victoria Island, home to some of Lagos’ wealthiest residents and businesses. This upscale district, known for its glittering towers and high-end commerce, could soon find itself submerged. According to recent climate models, if sea levels rise by just two meters—a conservative estimate given current trends—parts of Victoria Island, Lekki, and other coastal areas will be uninhabitable. But it’s not just the wealthy who will suffer; the city’s poorest residents, many of whom live in informal settlements, are likely to bear the brunt of the floods.

Lagos is more than just a city; it’s Nigeria’s economic powerhouse. With an economy larger than many African countries combined, Lagos contributes significantly to Nigeria’s GDP, driven by sectors such as oil, manufacturing, and finance. However, the looming threat of submersion poses a severe risk to its financial future.

Rising waters could paralyze Lagos’ ports, which are among the busiest in Africa, handling billions of dollars in imports and exports. Additionally, businesses along the coastline could be wiped out by floods, resulting in loss of jobs and investments. Imagine a future where multinational companies are forced to relocate, where industries grind to a halt due to frequent disruptions, and where local markets are submerged in knee-deep water.

The knock-on effects could be catastrophic for the Nigerian economy, leading to lower revenues, diminished global competitiveness, and severe inflation. The cost of repairing flood-damaged infrastructure would be astronomical, further stretching government resources already under strain.

While the economic losses would be substantial, the human cost could be even greater. Rising waters in Lagos would likely lead to one of the largest internal displacement crises in Nigerian history. Hundreds of thousands of residents could be forced from their homes, seeking shelter elsewhere in the country.

Coastal communities, particularly in areas like Makoko—a sprawling slum built on stilts—are especially vulnerable. Residents here already contend with rising tides, which flood their homes during heavy rains. With climate change accelerating, these residents could become climate refugees, joining the growing ranks of displaced people around the world.

The threat of waterborne diseases such as cholera and malaria is another looming danger. Flooding can contaminate water supplies, and Lagos’ underdeveloped sanitation infrastructure could result in widespread outbreaks. For the city’s vulnerable populations, including the elderly, children, and those living in poverty, this could be a matter of life and death.

The looming question is, can Lagos prevent this catastrophic future? While the situation is dire, there are steps that can be taken. Urban planners and environmentalists have been sounding the alarm for years, proposing a range of solutions to fortify Lagos against rising waters.

One potential solution is the construction of seawalls and levees around the most vulnerable areas, similar to the Dutch model. The Netherlands, much of which lies below sea level, has invested heavily in flood defenses, with a network of dams, dikes, and seawalls that could serve as an inspiration for Lagos. However, these projects are expensive and could take years to complete.

Another solution is better urban planning. Lagos needs a long-term strategy to manage its rapid growth and mitigate the effects of climate change. This includes enforcing stricter building codes, relocating communities from high-risk areas, and investing in green infrastructure that can absorb excess rainwater.

Equally important is international cooperation. Lagos is not alone in this fight, and there are global funds available to help vulnerable cities adapt to climate change. By partnering with international organizations and securing climate financing, Lagos could potentially fund large-scale adaptation projects that would save both lives and livelihoods.

Lagos, one of the most vibrant cities in Africa, is staring down an existential threat. As the seas rise, so does the risk of flooding, displacement, and economic collapse. The city’s deputy governor has issued a chilling warning: Lagos could soon be submerged. But while the danger is real, there is still hope. With concerted effort, planning, and international support, Lagos can fight back against the rising tides.

The city’s future depends on its ability to adapt, innovate, and build resilience. Time, however, is not on Lagos’ side. The waters are rising, and the clock is ticking.